The European Transport Market Study (ETMS) supports strategic capacity planning by providing data-based insights into future mobility trends for both passenger and freight transport.
It enables Infrastructure Managers (IMs), national and European authorities and other railway stakeholders to make better decisions on the use of existing infrastructure and the development of new rail capacities across Europe.
RailNetEurope (RNE) has been mandated and funded by the European Commission to conduct the ETMS, together with expert partners and active stakeholder involvement.
Background and Regulatory Context
Article 9 of the RFC Regulation (EU) 913/2010 required the Management Boards of Rail Freight Corridors to carry out and periodically update Transport Market Studies (TMS). RNE has been supporting RFCs in delivering harmonised and coordinated TMSs.
These studies however focused on expected changes in freight traffic along the corridors only.
The draft Capacity Regulation foresees that a more comprehensive European Transport Market Study will be executed at regular intervals by the future Network Coordinator, a role RNE is preparing to take on.
On this basis, the European Commission requested RNE (via CEF Technical Assistance) to execute an extended feasibility study to put equal attention on freight and passenger transport and better focus the ETMS to support the use cases of the strategic capacity management process foreseen by the draft regulation. The feasibility study was concluded in 2023-2024.
In the coming years, 2025-2027, the first iteration of an ETMS will be created by:
- Integrating the outcome of the RFC TMSs concluded in 2024 for freight traffic
- Extending the scope with passenger traffic based on the extended feasibility study
The outcomes of the ETMS will provide IMs with key input to support their strategic capacity planning processes.
It is anticipated that the ETMS project will have an overall duration of 30 months and be concluded before the end of 2027.
ETMS Methodology
RNE has adopted a state-of-the-art methodology for the ETMS based on recent academic research into Transport Network Design and Frequency Setting Problems (TNDFSP).
This approach models the behaviour of both passengers and rail operators and provides a robust basis to forecast
- passenger numbers
- train frequency needs,
- and key train routes,
providing better insights into future infrastructure and rolling stock requirements to power well-informed capacity planning decisions.
ETMS Consortium
Following a competitive tender process, the ETMS is being developed with the support of a highly experienced consortium led by
- Panteia (Netherlands), including:
- Tplan (Italy)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) (Germany)
- Haskoning (the Netherlands)
Stakeholder Involvement
Active stakeholder participation is essential to the success of the ETMS.
RNE will conduct stakeholder consultations throughout the project.
A key contributor is the RNE EuroLink Working Group, composed of experts in strategic capacity planning from RNE Members. This group will provide:
- Methodological input,
- Infrastructure knowledge,
- Tactical-level appraisal and verification of intermediate results.
The ETMS development will run in parallel with the EuroLink group’s work on a stategic concept for the European rail network.